|11-12-2019, 10:40 PM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2019
Overseas Soccer Betting
Overseas Soccer Betting Sites How often do you overtake 2-1 in football oversea sports betting? The football forum on the Overseas Football Betting Site is full of flimsy wisdom that often exaggerates the likelihood of an incident, which is not generally proven by actual overseas sports betting data.
In this article, Mark Taylor examines all cases that reversed in a 2-1 dominance situation in a single season of Premier League, examining the difference between 2-1 points.
Find out the results by reading the football forum on the Overseas Football Betting Site.
The pervasiveness and perseverance of the perception in the sports betting industry abroad have led to cognitive biases that tend to cloud judgment.
Recency or availability bias, for example, events in the near past
(E.g., a team that scores after scoring three goals) is a phenomenon that is thought to be much more likely than it actually is.
Or there is a confirmation bias to find only one case that supports a pre-formed concept, such as a team that wins a red card wins with fewer players.
When deciding on betting on an overseas soccer betting site, the inspection should be based on the data of the football forum rather than relying on intuition that human defects often occur.
2-1 Does this assumption statistically prove to a foreign sports betting customer who thinks the difference in score is most likely to be reversed? Let's find out together.
Premier League reversal case study
In one recent Premier League single season, one team remained dominant 2-1 at 132 of 380 matches.
Of the 74 games, the home team and the away team dominated in 58 games, the third goal in 89 games, the 1-1 deadlock is cleared and the team losing 2-0 in 43 games scored the third goal.
The 101 teams that won the 132 games, which reached 2-1 in the Premier League sample, eventually won the match, 25 teams drawn and 6 teams defeated.
In 16 minutes, he reached the fastest 2-1 situation, and lastly reached the same score difference at the fourth injury time. The average time between 2-1 points was just over 60 minutes.
The average ability of the winning or losing team was about the same throughout the 132 games.
The most common method used for modeling match results or remaining time is based on the Poisson distribution.
Goal-based assessments are made of the relative abilities of the teams that play and the probability of future results is obtained by estimating the likelihood that each team will score or allow a certain number of goals.
2-1 score difference test
Model the remaining time of the total 132 matches from the moment you scored the 2-1 score and compare the results with the resulting probabilities to see if there is a broad match between the model and the layer.
However, a less labor-intensive approach that produces similarly useful results in information provision
Useful in comparing Poisson's estimates, we use the average arrival time and relative qualities of the teams that reached 2-1 in terms of average season-wide results in terms of prevailing teams.
If you use the Poisson model to determine the end result for a slightly better team, your home team will dominate 2-1 after an hour of play.
The team that wins wins 75%, draws 20% of the time and the remaining 5% of the prevailing scores turn over.
In the Premier League sample I chose, I compared them in 132 games that led to a 2-1 situation.
The 101 teams that were winning eventually won the game, 25 teams drawn, and only six teams lost.
These wins, draws, and defeats were 76%, 19%, and 5%, respectively, which is almost a perfect match to the modeled percentage.
This fact intuitively encourages 2-1 predominance to be considered very vulnerable, especially to 2-0 score gaps and is still cited often.
It is strongly suggested that the reputation is now less reliable and that the market inefficiency associated with this particular score difference is very likely to decrease.
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